After all the fears and speculation Mumbai, the
financial capital of India, has recorded a voting percentage of 52.6% on the
polling day yesterday for General Elections-2014. Although the figure is much lower
than the national average and that of 65% recorded in the political capital of Delhi this reflects a 10% surge over the dismal voting of
41.4% in 2009. This is the city’s second
half century during the last 25 years with its first one coming in 1998 when
the percentage was just over fifty. Before 1991 the voting percentage in Mumbai
never fell below fifty percent and the city’s highest ever turnout of 68% was
recorded in 1967 General Elections. Voter apathy grew largely after 1989 and
various reasons like impact of economic liberalization, decline of the working
class movement, closure of the cotton mills, constant shifting or elimination
of slums, migratory population and even summer vacation during poll period are
cited for this. This dismal voting in 2009 could also be explained in terms of
the city losing faith in political leaders of all parties following the horrific
Mumbai terror attack of 26/11/2008.
Now speculation is ripe as to why Mumbaikars showed
a willingness to vote in large numbers and whom this is going to benefit. One reason
that comes to mind immediately is the tremendous public awareness campaigns
undertaken by the Election Commission with active support from the media telling
and urging Mumbaikars to exercise their democratic right on a daily basis. Then
there is the latest voting option of NOTA (None Of The Above) thanks to which
you can press that button to reject all candidates if they do not qualify in
your view. Sulking and angry voters who sat at home on earlier occasions can
now come out to exercise their democratic right and express themselves.
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| Sachin Tendulkar Votes |
Historically, at least since 1977, whenever Mumbai
voted comparatively better there was a change of government. Post-Emergency in
1977 voting turnout in Mumbai was more than sixty percent and this reflected in
rejecting Congress and bringing in the Janata Party Government under Prime
Minister late Morarji Desai. The Janata Party messed up the public mandate
leading to mid-term polls in 1980 and the angry city sulked. Post Indira Gandhi
assassination and the tremendous national sympathy wave Mumbai recorded a
turnout of more than 56% and brought back the Congress government in 1984-85
General Elections. Following Bofors Scam and growing terrorism Mumbai recorded
more than 57% voting and rejected the Congress government in 1989 General
Elections. Even in 2004 General Elections voting percentage was only a little
higher than normal at 47% and that amounted to throwing the BJP led NDA
government out of power. If this anti-incumbency trend is consistent then this
time also the higher voting in Mumbai could spell trouble for the ruling
combine of Congress-NCP in Maharashtra. Leaders of the ruling combine are quick
to rebut the anti-incumbency or wave-for-change theory ascribing the higher percentage
to an upsurge of voting by certain Muslim and backward communities. For witnessing
the true significance of the Mumbai half century we will have to wait till 16th
May, 2014 when counting of votes start and results come out.
