India Fights COVID-19: The Continuing Surge And Hiccups!
India have witnessed an unending surge of new COVID-19
cases in the last few days—new cases per day achieving one landmark after
another. Last Sunday the 15000 mark was crossed; on Thursday 16000, on Friday
17000 and today the number is 18552 in the last twenty-four hours. States prominently
contributing towards this surge are Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi in terms
of absolute numbers while most of the other states are also having a surge in
lesser numbers. The universal behavior of the virus that we mentioned in the past
articles here is somewhat negated in India with numbers rather fluctuating, not
becoming steady or showing any signs of flattening the curve
of new cases even after a month of the acceleration in at least 3-4 states. For example: Maharashtra
seemed to be steady at around 2500 cases per day and Mumbai showing a steady
decline from around 1500 to 800 cases per day; but suddenly the numbers spiked
again with Maharashtra rising to more than 5000 cases and Mumbai again crossing
1300. Of course, the great redeeming solace is the recovery rate which is now
more than 58% and this in numbers means more than 10000 people on average are
getting cured everyday across the country. The death rate is also manageable,
although it has risen from 2.8% to a little more than 3.1%.
There are reasons why the universal trend of the virus,
acceleration period lasting for about a month and then showing steady decline,
is not being displayed in India. First, unfortunately, the only thing that was
very right, bold and timely was the early lockdown, and then it had been a
clumsy downturn in terms of decisions, measures and policies. In various states
of the country the lockdown was not strictly followed the main focus always
being on easing of curbs. As we mentioned earlier in these pages the Delhi government
kept on showing an unusual hurry to get rid of the curbs: for example, why at
all was it necessary to allow 100% attendance in offices from the third
lockdown while public transport was not fully restored and metro trains were
not running, why to open up religious places/malls/salons/restaurants so fast;
now, Delhi is paying the price of being casual with number of infections per
day rising to nearly 4000 with the government creating more confusion by indulging
in insane projections. Another example is the state of Karnataka that also showed
a tendency to paint a normal picture as soon as possible, perhaps due to the
political dispensation of the state. The state even allowed secondary
examinations to take place while the Supreme Court was considering cancellation
of all such exams all over the country—it must be understood that although young
students are likely to get cured fast if infected there is the tremendous risk
of them being carriers of the virus to the elderly in their families. Now, cases
are rising in Karnataka at a much faster rate. In states like West Bengal and
Assam the respective lockdowns were not taken seriously and only now the
importance is being realized.
Second, the mishandling and delaying of the nearly forty-million
migrant workers led to serious repercussions: within the third lockdown trains
had to be run to take them home and taking the cue special trains started
running spreading the infections to various parts. Due to the lax measures
people all across the country, stranded or not, started taking private cars,
buses, tempos to go to their home states contributing to the same end. Domestic
flights had to be started in line with trains and therefore before the
conclusion of the fourth lockdown almost everything had been reopened. This is
sharp contrast to other severely affected countries where lockdown was the
strictest at the acceleration stage of the virus.
Thirdly, the Coronavirus testing done all around the
country. Except for some states like Maharashtra and Delhi, testing had been
low. Then, the India media alleged that numbers of tests in various regions are
being deliberately lowered to suppress the surge. True or false, there followed
a spree of testing in the last few days which too perhaps could explain the fluctuating
surge of the virus.
Hiccups normally accompany a disorder. Therefore, we
have seen decisions or rather reversal of decision being taken or done in a
hurry by several states. Regular trains suspended from July 1 to August 12. A strict
lockdown is being imposed in Guwahati, Assam for 14 days starting coming Sunday
night. West Bengal has extended lockdown till 31st July with some relaxations.
Tamil Nadu and several other states had already extended lockdown or made the measures
much stricter even with warnings to the citizens—fall in line or face another
lockdown! Delhi is at the moment concentrating fully on improving the health
infra and not considering stricter measure even after the uncontrollable surge.
Office-goers of Delhi have said that almost in every office there have been dozens
of infected which they attribute to the 100% attendance allowed. A Serological Survey
is also currently underway in different regions while people, also in the government,
starting to admit the obvious—that India is in stage-3 of the virus which means
there is community transmission now.
If more testing has indeed contributed to increasing
new cases there should be a steady rate and subsequent flattening of the Corona
curve in a few days in at least Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi. In various
other states, the real acceleration might take place a few days later, and so,
in a diverse, large country like India with the highest population density the
universal behavior of COVID-19 can still be expected, but at different times
and in different ways. In the meantime, measures should get the strictest in
areas where needed, despite the fact the fifth lockdown, supposedly the last,
finally comes to an end last of this month.
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