India Cross 7 Million COVID-19 Cases Amid Hopeful Trends!


The mammoth 7 million or 70 Lakh mark in total COVID-19 cases in India has been crossed today. The time taken for the last million is about 15 days which is less than the 13 days taken for the increase from 5 to 6 million and 11 days from 4 to 5 million. This means that the spikes in daily new cases have been decreasing for the last three weeks, and more positively, the daily recoveries have been more than daily new cases for the same period, except for minor aberrations on one or two days. This also means that India has probably reached its overall peak; because the record spike of over 98,000 daily cases had happened about three weeks back, and since then the figures have been coming from the persistent nineties to the eighties and then to the seventies at present. We will have to keep a close watch for maybe another week at least to finally decide about the realization of a  possible overall peak.


For the last twenty-four-hour period national recoveries are at 89,154 while the daily new cases at 74, 383. Spikes in daily deaths have also seen a decrease to less than 1000 for the last about two weeks with 918 deaths for the last 24-hour period. Deaths at over 900 mark is not desirable at all, and the total fatality figure at 1,08,334 looks staggering. With the new hopeful trends available, fatality rate reduced to 1.5% and recovery rate at more than 85%, we can hope for reduced fatalities in near future. Total national Coronavirus cases now stand at 7,053,806. The total active cases, at 8,67,496, have been reduced to less than 9 lakhs for the first time in weeks.


Maharashtra, the worst affected state, has given the most promising figures for the last 24-hour period: total recoveries at 26,440 as against 11, 416 new cases. However, new deaths at 308 is still on the higher side, and the fatality rate in the state is still over 2.5%, much higher than the national average. The states of concern continue to be Karnataka and Kerala where daily spikes have been over 10,000 and daily recoveries much lesser. Borderline states in terms of recovery-spike ratio are Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and others. States that have been consistently doing well for the last few days are Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Telangana and Goa. The union territory of Delhi that has been doing extremely well recently has again started showing heavier spikes of new cases, though still lower than daily recovery figures. With the Indian reality in mind situation can still be called volatile in several states and regions of the country.


The most important thing to do for the people at large at this hopeful juncture is to follow the preventive norms the strictest way possible so that the much-awaited trends do stay on, and the daily spikes reduce further down, less than fifty thousand most desirably, in the near future. However, with the biggest festivals of the country starting soon, Navaratri from October 17, Durga Puja from October 22 and then Diwali in early November, it’d be very challenging to ensure social distancing norms. We’ve already heard of mad rush of people for Puja shopping in West Bengal where the Chief Minister has allowed people to visit Durga Puja pandals from the third day of the brighter lunar period, that is from 19th October, onward.


There are more challenges still: Bihar elections taking place from October 28 when public meetings or rallies are bound to accelerate further despite the restrictions; mad rush for pre-electioneering campaigns in West Bengal which was to pick up soon in Assam too; the country-wide proliferation of mass protests and demonstrations of all kinds, from the disgruntled medical fraternity to the anxious farmers, and more; and of course, the upcoming winter season when, as experts warn, any type of influenza cases including the Coronavirus are bound to rise. All these make the future prospects quite uncertain as far as the COVID-19 gains are to be sustained. We have to go on watching, observing and hoping, with our fingers crossed.


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