The COVID-19 Vaccine Countdown!
Experts say that
while the novel Coronavirus that hit planet earth in December 2019 created an
unprecedented crisis for humankind the response to it by researchers, medical scientists
and pharmaceutical companies in trying to discover a vaccine is also
unprecedented. Under normal circumstances the process of discovering, testing and
producing a vaccine takes from 5 years to 10 years thanks to the high failure
rate associated with it. Therefore, the probability of having an effective
COVID-19 vaccine within a year of the pandemic invasion is incredible news that
speaks volumes about the non-stop efforts, dedication, round-the-clock
supervision, utilization of special funds and global coordination put into it. As
per the World Health Organization, at present there are nearly 200 vaccine
candidates out of which 44 are in various stages of human clinical trials, and
a few are about to be approved by the regulators. This would indeed be another crowing
glory of the human quest should a safe and effective vaccine be really found
and readied for public use in the coming months or even in the coming weeks.
China had been the
first casualty of the pandemic, and therefore the Chinese researchers went all
out for a vaccine. Their vaccine, called CoronaVac, was in fact approved for
emergency use within the country in August 2020 itself, of course, without
completing the Phase-3 clinical trials. Phase-2 human trial results showed that
the vaccine produced antibodies that could neutralize 10 strains of the SARS-CoV-2
virus without any severe adverse reactions. This vaccine could be out for distribution
anytime.
Russia became the
first country to register a COVID-19 vaccine, Sputnik V, in August 2020 approving
it for general use within the country, of course, without completing Phase-3
human trials. It has already claimed 92% efficacy, revised to 95% now, and the final trials are
going on in several countries, Russia says the vaccine is being exported,
including India.
Another major
vaccine being jointly developed and tested by the US pharmaceutical giant
Pfizer and Germany’s BioNTech is in the final clinical trials and it has
claimed 95% efficacy based on interim data. The firms are likely to apply for emergency
use authorization from the US regulators in mid-December 2020, and the vaccine
could be out in the markets later next month subject to approval.
Moderna, a vaccine
by the US Pharma, is also in the final stages, and it has already claimed that
it is 94.5% effective based on interim data. It is likely to apply for
emergency use authorization a few days later than Pfizer-BioNTech.
AstraZeneca, a
vaccine developed by the Oxford University and co-developed by the Serum Institute
of India (SII), has shown an average efficacy rate of 70% for Phase-3 trials with
the likelihood of this going up to 90%. The vaccine has been proved to trigger
an immune response in all age-groups, particularly and more significantly in
the elderly group of below and above 70 years of age. The SII-developed vaccine
Covishield is already priced at around USD 13 (1000 Rupees) per two doses, and
the SII has been in the process of manufacturing 100 million doses within this
year.
Janssen, the pharmaceutical
wing of Johnson & Johnson, is also developing a vaccine that is in the
final human trials phase after a pause in October 2020 due to an illness in one
of the participants. With both singe-dose and two-dose regimens the final
trials of the vaccine are being conducted worldwide with participants up to
60,000, and interim data shows that the vaccine induced a robust immune response
and had been well tolerated.
Covaxin, a vaccine
being developed by Bharat Biotech in India in collaboration with the Indian Council
of Medical Research (ICMR), is also in the final phase clinical trials with the
company saying that they expect at least a 60% efficacy rate in preventing the Coronavirus
infection. Although the ICMR was hopeful of launching the vaccine by February
2021, Bharat Biotech sets a more practical launch date sometime in mid-2021.
Normally, a
regulator approves a vaccine if it is found to be at least 50% safe and effective,
and therefore, there should not be any difficulty for all these final-stage
vaccines to get the authorization or approval. However, experts the world over
insist that Phase-3 trial results do not necessarily indicate a safe and
effective vaccine, because it is not possible for a vaccine to account for all
kinds of induced side-effects across humanity whatever be the size of its volunteers.
They say that it is critical to monitor the safety and efficacy of a vaccine
even long after its roll-out, and there can be no certainty, for even years.
Prices and storage
requirements of the rolled-out vaccines are among other concerns. Pfizer-BioNTech
and Moderna are highly priced at USD 70 and USD 39 for the required two doses
respectively. Besides, Pfizer-BioNTech requires storage at minus 70 degree Celsius
while Moderna requires -19 C. Both of these factors make these vaccines
difficult to obtain for the poor and developing countries. Hopefully, AstraZeneca,
and its Indian counterpart Covishield, would be cheaper and it has been confirmed
that it can be preserved in normal fridge temperatures. Sputnik V is also
likely to be available at much lower prices, and Russians researchers have been
engaged in testing a process of turning liquid Sputnik V into a dried white
mass that can be stored at normal fridge temperatures of 2 C to 8 C and administered.
This method is being termed as freeze-dried doses.
Willingness of the
citizens across the globe to go for COVID-19 vaccination is another factor to
be considered. At the moment the figures reveal low levels of willingness. However,
once a vaccine is proved to be safe and effective the willingness is bound to
improve. Besides, the people in the medical and essential service sectors are
always the priorities. With the second wave of the pandemic gripping several
countries of the world we have no option but to hope for the best, that one of
the vaccines that can arrive anytime eventually proves to be safe and effective
in the long run.
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